William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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THE PRESIDENT HOLDS – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:   We're now starting to see the first polling coming in, measuring changes in presidential approval since the publication of "the book."  If these numbers are accurate, President Trump hasn't been damaged at all.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-five percent (55%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 30% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 44% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14.

COMMENT:  While some commentators, especially at the notorious CNN, tried to make much of the book by Michael Wolff, the book almost destroyed itself with factual errors and wild-eyed judgments.

I saw Maggie Haberman of the anti-Trump New York Times on CNN yesterday, trashing the book.  When The Times does that, it says something about Mr. Wolff's credibility. 

The book provided incentive, however, for the White House to fight back more strongly than ever.  Wolff tried to argue that Mr. Trump is mentally defective, even functionally illiterate.  The White House responded by allowing a meeting between the president and members of Congress to be televised yesterday.  The president came off as an intelligent, capable leader.

True, Mr. Trump is sometimes his own worst enemy, with tweets that make him look small and petty.  I wish he'd stop using Twitter, but he won't.  However, more thorough exposure of the "real" Trump, as we saw yesterday on TV, will give citizens a far more accurate picture of the man in the Oval Office.

Oh, by the way, a new poll shows that Oprah Winfrey would defeat Donald Trump by ten points in a presidential election held today.  The problem for Oprah is that the election isn't being held today.  Polls generally show a well-known opponent defeating the incumbent president.  It's a commonplace...until the well-known opponent is formally nominated and subjected to scrutiny.  There's an old saying in politics that presidential contenders are the most popular the day before they actually declare.

A ten-point lead for Oprah at this stage is actually smaller than what I'd expect.  Michael Dukakis was way ahead of incumbent Vice President George H.W. Bush for part of the 1988 campaign, but Bush went on to win in a landslide, 426 electoral votes to 111 for Dukakis. 

January 10, 2018